Thinking out loud.

It doesn’t seem the daily economic news can get any worse at this point… though it seems we’ve all been saying that for a couple months now. As I observe the the actions companies are taking as of late however, I really see a lot of opportunity out there. Am I crazy?

Every company I interact with is cutting costs, and dramatically. Capital spending and investment spending is not happening anywhere as far as I can tell. For this reasoon, I think it is an amazing time to be, as the Oracle of Omaha says, “greedy while others are fearful”. With no investment spending and no capital projects, most competitors are essentially standing still. When would there ever be a better opportunity to gain on or pull away from the competition?

This should be a lesson in the importance of strong capitalization. Any business that has the resources to invest and build right now is realing huge leverage on those investments. So I wonder, why is no one doing so?

I have been considering for quite some time my feelings that much of the workforce today lacks a trade. We all consider ourselves a “professional” or are building a strong “career path”, but only a few of us actually have a trade it seems. My grandfather was a geologist by trade. He became a businessman, but it seems to me that was the result of being a great geologist. Even my father has a specific trade I believe. He is a retailer, and a damn good one for 30 years. What is my trade? I guess accountant is closest at this point, but is it really accountant or is it auditor, software developer, compliance specialist, systems engineer, or some combination thereof?

Yet going even further, what I think I am really convinced of is that there is an even smaller part of the workforce that are truly craftsmen (or women). Part of this is probably a result of cultural and economic trends over the last forty years of the “Information Age”. Yet I find it perplexing that more people aren’t interested in building something. Crafting something they can see and touch that evokes human emotions from others. Is there still room for craftsmen in the Information Age? Is there a huge demand for craftsmen in the Information Age that we have been trained to ignore? If we are, as Daniel Pink says, moving into the “Conceptual Age”, will the demand for craftsmen come back?

Sunday Morning had a beautiful store last week about a craftsmen who builds birch bark canoes. This story evoked human emotions from me at least. I wonder if the tools I use, a programming language and a micro-processor for example, could ever produce something that evokes the same level of emotion as this man’s chisel?

Well it is 2009… and the last post on this blog was, WHEN?! September 29? Crazy… got a little busy it turns out. Ate, slept, and breathed work the last three months. I heard there some holidays too. To save a long post, let me summarize in a few bullets:

• Linford & Company grew to 6 people (that is double the size we were September 1).
• We built a web-based software product called AuditConfirmations. It is used for making the life of other accountants much easier by making the process of doing confirmations for financial statement audits much faster and easier. It is totally sweet.
• Learned a ton about the mining business thanks to a large client of ours. Discovered a genuinely deep interest in mining and natural resources.
• A certain someone restrained herself from killing me while all this was happening… and was in fact quite supportive.

So where do we go from here? Well first and foremost, I will be blogging again. Second, the goals for 2009 just get bigger. Excited to see where AuditConfirmations goes, it really could be a big deal if we keep working hard. Do have some things on my mind as the result of the world economy melting down and the fallout it has created.

Start coming back by… I promise to produce better (and more often).

Today is a proud day for America.

Say what you want about the bailout. I have debated the ins and outs of the bailout with at least 10 people in the last couple of days. A few agreed with my non-interventionist views and more think I’m crazy it seems. But no matter your view, I’ll say it again, today is a proud day for America.And let me tell you why…

First of all, in Colorado, 3 representatives approved the bailout and 4 opposed it. Here is the interesting part… 2 democrats and 1 republican approved the bailout bill, yet it was 2 democrats and 2 repbulicans that opposed the bill (including Mark Udall who I have written every day for the last week with a new reason to vote no). So the bill does not pass and all the headlines tonight are that Congress “fails to act on the financial crisis”. Well call it what you want, but I am soooooo proud to say that the DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS SPLIT THEIR VOTES TODAY. Did our representatives in government actutally THINK INDEPENDENTLY today and vote for their constituents rather than vote down party lines? It would appear so.

This scenario gives me confidence in the future of America that in serious situtations, our politicians actually do give a shit about something besides party affiliation. Additonally, they seem to show some care for both the integrity of our free/capitalist market structure as well as our constitution today.

In response to the “failure to pass” rhetoric, the markets took an ass-kicking to the tune 8%. I realize this TOTALLY SUCKS. I own stocks too and am not thrilled. But if the integrity of our markets is maintained, we will recover which means essentially one thing… today stocks are on clearance sale and it is about time to START ACQUIRING. Despite the “failure to pass an aid package”, it appears the sun will rise again tomorrow.

Hang on tight America, this will hurt like hell but if we can hold out a few more days and keep the government spending machine from getting us deeper into debt, we will get through this that much faster. This is the first day I have been proud of our Federal government in a long long time (did I mention by the way that the value of dollar increased and the price of oil decreased today?).

Finally, thank you to Republican Ron Paul for his FIRM AND VOCAL opposition to the bailout and thank you to my representative, Democrat Mark Udall, for representing my personal interest today in Congress. I REALLY hope we will see more of these days where the political parties are split, one day we will break their sleeper hold on the people.

This letter has been sent to both my Senator (Ken Salazar) and Representative (Mark Udall) in regard to the current banking crisis.

Dear Representative Udall,

I write you today to express my overwhelmingly strong sense that any government intervention in the current banking crisis will be a disaster in the long run for the American economy. Furthermore, I feel even more strongly that the package being pushed by the Bush Administration could not be further from the appropriate course of action.

We are in this crisis because of an excess of artificially created credit at the hands of the Federal Reserve System. The solution being proposed? More artificial credit by the Federal Reserve. No liquidation of bad debt and malinvestment is to be allowed. By doing more of the same, we will only continue and intensify the distortions in our economy – all the capital misallocation, all the malinvestment – and prevent the market’s attempt to re-establish rational pricing of houses and other assets.

We are told that “low interest rates” led to excessive borrowing, but we are not told how these low interest rates came about. They were a deliberate policy of the Federal Reserve. As always, artificially low interest rates distort the market. Entrepreneurs engage in malinvestments – investments that do not make sense in light of current resource availability, that occur in more temporally remote stages of the capital structure than the pattern of consumer demand can support, and that would not have been made at all if the interest rate had been permitted to tell the truth instead of being toyed with by the Fed.

As a Colorado small business owner and entrepreneur in the Denver area (a Partner and co-founder at a highly successful accounting, finance, and consulting firm), I cannot adequately express how important it is to me that this package, as well as any other form of government intervention in this mess, be immediately rejected by congress. I understand this is a politically difficult time given the election season, but no other single issue will sway my vote and support (as a self-proclaimed independent) in the upcoming election. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Best Regards,
Dan

In the interest of appropriate attribution, the middle two paragraphs are lifted directly fom the words of Ron Paul as he is a much more accomplished writer than I and we share virtually exactly the same views on this topic.

I HIGHLY HIGHLY encourage you to do the same with your senator and representative.

Whenever a Great Bipartisan Consensus is announced, and a compliant media assures everyone that the wondrous actions of our wise leaders are being taken for our own good, you can know with absolute certainty that disaster is about to strike.

The events of the past week are no exception.

The bailout package that is about to be rammed down Congress’ throat is not just economically foolish. It is downright sinister. It makes a mockery of our Constitution, which our leaders should never again bother pretending is still in effect. It promises the American people a never-ending nightmare of ever-greater debt liabilities they will have to shoulder. Two weeks ago, financial analyst Jim Rogers said the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made America more communist than China! “This is welfare for the rich,” he said. “This is socialism for the rich. It’s bailing out the financiers, the banks, the Wall Streeters.”

That describes the current bailout package to a T. And we’re being told it’s unavoidable.

The claim that the market caused all this is so staggeringly foolish that only politicians and the media could pretend to believe it. But that has become the conventional wisdom, with the desired result that those responsible for the credit bubble and its predictable consequences – predictable, that is, to those who understand sound, Austrian economics – are being let off the hook. The Federal Reserve System is actually positioning itself as the savior, rather than the culprit, in this mess!

• The Treasury Secretary is authorized to purchase up to $700 billion in mortgage-related assets at any one time. That means $700 billion is only the very beginning of what will hit us.
• Financial institutions are “designated as financial agents of the Government.” This is the New Deal to end all New Deals.
• Then there’s this: “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.” Translation: the Secretary can buy up whatever junk debt he wants to, burden the American people with it, and be subject to no one in the process.

There goes your country.

Even some so-called free-market economists are calling all this “sadly necessary.” Sad, yes. Necessary? Don’t make me laugh.

Our one-party system is complicit in yet another crime against the American people. The two major party candidates for president themselves initially indicated their strong support for bailouts of this kind – another example of the big choice we’re supposedly presented with this November: yes or yes. Now, with a backlash brewing, they’re not quite sure what their views are. A sad display, really.

Although the present bailout package is almost certainly not the end of the political atrocities we’ll witness in connection with the crisis, time is short. Congress may vote as soon as tomorrow. With a Rasmussen poll finding support for the bailout at an anemic seven percent, some members of Congress are afraid to vote for it. Call them! Let them hear from you! Tell them you will never vote for anyone who supports this atrocity.

The issue boils down to this: do we care about freedom? Do we care about responsibility and accountability? Do we care that our government and media have been bought and paid for? Do we care that average Americans are about to be looted in order to subsidize the fattest of cats on Wall Street and in government? Do we care?

When the chips are down, will we stand up and fight, even if it means standing up against every stripe of fashionable opinion in politics and the media?

Times like these have a way of telling us what kind of a people we are, and what kind of country we shall be.

…Thank you to Dr. Ron Paul and his relentless pursuit of returning liberty and sanity to the American Republic and his vocal reponses to these insane actions in this critical time in our economic history.

I think this interview was even better than the last one I posted. Please take 5 minutes and watch it. This is really important.

Wow, I am really nervous about this.

Well I have said it to most everyone I know lately, as most of you know. And now a similar voice from who I am beginning to believe may be the one voice of true sanity in all of the 535 people who make up the key pieces of the three branches of the Federal Government (congress, the president, and the supreme court). Please watch the video.

On a sidenote, did you notice the supposed candidate of small government’s position. The one that runs the attack ads about how his opponent wants to impose “massive government”. What a shock… he wants to create a new government institution to further regulate our supposedly free markets. Ron Paul is right, there is no REAL difference between the major candidates. Everyday I am pushed further and further into a third party vote and become more scared of an Obama/McCain presidency.

I wrote the “Forest Fire” blog post late last night…

Late tonight I quote a buried paragraph in a front page story from today’s Financial Times (second to last to paragraph in “Shocked Lehman staff ‘told to move on’”):

“Some of Lehman’s senior bankers are expected to set up independent advisory boutiques in the near future”

The forest fire is going to be painful for all us, and unfortunately EXTREMELY painful for some. But, let it be known that it IS burning and the best thing we can do is let it clear the dead forest and burn itself out. Your children’s generation will appreciate the opportunities with the sapling firms.

I live in the West and have seen many forest fires. In the case of natural forest fire, what happens is that as the forest grows old, the trees grow so large that the forest floor sees little sunlight and the thick, lush vegetation turns to sparse and dry materials. Additionally, old trees that die of diseases or similar fall to the ground and dry out. The result is vast kindling, great fuel for a fast and hot fire. An event, such as a bolt of lightning occurs, and the forest is ablaze. It is an unfortunate situation as the devestation left behind is horrifying. However within just a few years, where there was once just a couple of very large, old trees there are hundres of small saplings and new vegetation.

A bolt of lightning has struck Wall Street this year, the media likes to refer to that bolt of lightning as the credit crisis. This weekend we saw two more big trees begin to burn, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. Last week Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were burning like crazy, but our noble Secretary of the Treasury (the acting firefighter) swooped in and (in theory) put out the blaze. Now he is again trying to determine how to bring in the choppers and contain the new burn.

The whole situation reminds me of the Colorado fires of the late 90’s as compared to the big Yellowstone fire of 1988. The long and short of this is that it has proven quite healthy and natural for the forest to burn out every so often so that new blood can bloom from the forest floor. Despite the controversy about letting the fires burn in Yellowstone in 1988, it proved to be very healthy for the park and policies were enacted in 2004 that make it so all natural fires in the park are left to burn.

The economy is on fire, but just like the forest this is a necessary requirerment for our national economic ecosystem to function properly and regeneratively. When the overgrowth becomes to high and powerful, another powerful force must ravage the big trees in order to make way for the new trees to build new and better forests.

My point is that yes it sucks the stock market was down 5% today. But if we want a long term solution, we need to call off the firefighters and let the credit crisis fire burn itself out. This is how free markets are supposed to work by their very nature and definition. So… Hank Paulson, George Bush, Barack Obama, and John McCain… give up the mismanaged attempts at containment and let the fire burn out. We will be much better off in the long run without the big trees that caused it. The collateral damage is very sad but you are exactly the ones who have told us about the necessity of sacrifice oh so many times over the last few years.

And besides the last two American industries that were really on fire and the government helped put out were the auto industry and the airline industry. Do you really want to see our entire banking and financial services sectors looking like those do five years from now?